The Complete Professional Football Analyst
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
The Complete Professional Football Analyst
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What data do I have to collect and enter?
Where can I find the data I need?
Games can be on Saturday, Sunday, Monday, somtimes Thursday. Must I enter all the results at the same time?
How do I know which games to wager on?
How do I know which game is the BEST BET?BR>
How do I Optimize the performance of the program?
Where can I find the data I need?
Games can be on Saturday, Sunday, Monday, somtimes Thursday. Must I enter all the results at the same time?
How do I know which games to wager on?
How do I know which game is the BEST BET?
How do I Optimize the performance of the program?
How often should I optimize the handicapping factors?
What data do I have to collect and enter?
It's really quite simple. You only have to find the score, rushing and passing yardage for each team, which team was favored and by how many points. You enter all this data on a single screen.
You can get all the data you need from a decent local newspaper. Of course, you'll have to record the line before gameday, and the results before you forecast the next week. You can also get results online from places like nfl.com, Profootballweekly or CBS Sportsline, and the betting line from places like Vip Sports, USA Today, or FootballLocks.com. (You can Click these links to check them out).
No. Whenever you start to enter data, CPFA asks you which week it is for. If you've already entered some data for that week, CPFA just adds the new data to the same results file.
CPFA calculates a betting line for each game. The handicapping factors (which you should frequently optimize) include a minimim line difference to bet against. If the CPFA line differs from the actual line by this amount or more, it's a bettable game. For example, suppose Green Bay is a 3.5 point favorite over Chicago, and the CPFA "Line to Bet" is 5.5 points. If CPFA favors Green Bay by 9 points or more, you can bet Green Bay. If it favors Chicago by 2 points or more, you can bet Chicago. Otherwise, you shouldn't bet at all.
Sorry, you DON'T. CPFA is a purely statistical system. The only way to use it to win consistently is to go with EVERY game it picks. Games that have larger differences in the lines don't seem to do better than those that have just the minimum difference.
From the main menu bar, Click FORECASTING, then OPTIMIZE WEIGHTS from the drop down menu that appears. A screen will display the current values of the five main handicapping factors, taken from the "Weights" file (*.wgt) you selected when you started the program. Click the check box next to the factor which you want to optimize, then click the OPTIMIZE button. CPFA will display the available results files, and let you select the files you wish to use for the optimization. (We recommend that you use the most recent 3 or 4 weeks of play). It will then ask you to select the starting and ending values you wish to optimize over, offering suggestions based on the current value. Enter values (or Click OK to accept the suggestions). The program will then calculate the Won/Lost record you would have achieved with each value within the range selected. It will display these values, along with the results, and let you Click the value which produced the best results, then return you to the five main handicapping factors, where you may select another factor to optimize.
How often should I optimize the handicapping factors?
Once the season is underway, we suggest that you optimize these factors every week, using the most recent 3 or 4 weeks of play.