I’m sure you can recall handicapping races in which you have decided that the favorite really doesn’t have a good chance of winning its race. You can decide that a race has a “false favorite” for any number of reasons. Perhaps you’ve been following its trainer closely and have ample evidence that (s)he is not going for a win this time out. Perhaps you’ve noticed something about the horse’s previous performances after a similar layoff or break in work out schedule. Whatever it is you’ve noticed, you are confident that the favorite is not going to win this race. But what are you going to do about it? You could of course just place your bet on that one of the remaining horses that you feel is most likely to win. But is that the best approach? Let’s look at the 4th race at Del Mar, on Sunday 8/1/2004. This was an optional claiming allowance race over 1 1/8 mile on turf for 3yr olds and up. You'll see why we picked Del Mar in a moment.

What's more, the second favorite, Skywalker Red, has a worse post position than Japalibraquigrafo! Here's where our program, the False Favorite Analyzer comes in. We simply check the "Elimated" button next to these two horses and click the "Calculate" button. The program gives any horses we checked a 10% chance of winning and recalculates the odds on all the other horses. As you can see, all the other horses have become overlays and Prairie Predator and Gent, in particular, have very attractive odds. For example, the chances of Gent winnin are now better than 2/1, but he's still going to pay $11.00 at the track!

We can investigate the value of a bet on Gent by checking the "Bet" box next to its name and clicking the calculate button again. As you can see, a bet on Gent gives us a 37% chance of winning, and a return on investment of 1.03% - over the long run, we stand to double our money! You can even check the return on multiple bets, such as one on both Gent and Prairie Predator, which would give us a 58% chance of winning. The program is a bargain at only $19.95. Buy NOW, before you miss another opportunity!