However, beaten lengths don't tell the story either. A horse that finishes second, beaten by 16-1/2 lengths during the Kentucky Derby, for example, may have still beaten 16 other quality horses and lost only because of an incredible race by the winner. On the other hand, a horse finishing second by a nose in a field of 6 has only beaten 4 other horses.

So, we've settled on evaluating a horse's long shot potential on how many horses it was leading at these calls rather than just what position it was running in. It has been providing some interesting results. For example, some winners it picked on just one racing day...4/23/2005 are listed below. And, for comparison purposes, this new version includes a new score, PGPoints, which is the average of OUR Long Shot Points, and those calculated with Geer's method. So, you are free to use our original scoring method or a blend of ours and Geer's.

The program uses downloaded BRIS or TSN past performance files (in single file format), so there's no data entry (but you must subscribe to either BRIS or TSN and pay for the downloads. It can also use TSN's Pro Caps files or BRIS's MultiCaps files. It prints a report showing the Morning Line and Long Shot Score for every horse in each race. You eliminate favorites and horses with Morning Lines greater than 15/1, and take a close look at the horse with the highest score. We don't recommend relying on this program exclusively, but it can point you to some very nice priced horses, as shown above!

Also, note that the PGPoints are calculated for ALL horses, even thoses which would be eliminated from contention by Geer's methods. If you wish to use Geer's selection criteria, please read his book, cited above, or purchase his computer program.