The Sartin Method Modeler is the third program in our series of handicapping tools based on the velocity calculations pioneered by the late Dr. Howard Sartin. It includes all the capabilities of the previous two programs, and extends the velocity analysis to include much of the Decision Modeling described in Chapter 7 of Tom Brohamer's Modern Pace Handicapping (Daily Racing Form Press, New York, 2000).

Like the Sartin Pro Calculator, the Sartin Modeler downloads single file format PP files from BRIS or TSN (or MultiCaps or ProCaps) and translates the fractional times and beaten lengths at various points in a thoroughbred horse race into the velocities used in the Sartin Methodology and calculates the Early Pace (EP), Sustained Pace (SP), Average Pace (AP) and X Factor (X) used in the Sartin Method. However, our Modeler goes well beyond this.

It permits the user to select that one of each horse's pace lines that is most representative of how it will likely run today, and calculates how each horse in today's race ranks in EP, SP, AP, X. Further, it permits you to store these rankings in a database, update that database with the identities of the win, place and show horses, and produce a model showing the average values that have been winning, placing and showing, by type of race, at your track.

Let's start at the beginning. First, it produces a velocity report similar to the one produced by our Sartin Pro Calculator program, as shown here:

This is identical to the previous program's report, except that the pace lines YOU have selected are highlighted. Next, using just those pace lines, the program provides a report which shows how each horse in today's race ranks in EP, SP, AP, X, and Total. We'll look at one of these later.

The next feature is where the program really pays for itself. You can now save the data created for each race in a file on your computer. Tomorrow, after the race has been run, you can use the program to scan a downloaded "Exotic Results" file from BRIS or TSN, or an "Import Charts" file from BRIS, and update the records of the horses that came in the money. One run through the results file and you update the money winners in ALL races.

Then, you can create a Brohamer type model of the characteristics of those horses who have been in the money. You select a race type as shown here:

You create a separate model for each race type. The program pulls the money horses from your file, using only the most recent races, and creates a model that looks something like this one covering short sprints at Santa Anita between 4/8/2009 and 4/18/2009:

The report has separate sections for Winners, Place horses and Show horses. In each, it lists the EP, SP, AP, X (for sprints), and Total for the money horse in each of the most recent races. And, it calculates the Average values for these money horses. This Winner's model shows some bias in favor of Sustained Pace (SP) and against Early Pace (EP). How would you use it? Let's take a look at the Sartin Model for the 2nd at Santa Anita on 4/19/2009. This was the day after the model shown above was created. After making adjustments in selected pace lines, it looked like this:

Notice that only four horses had totals close to the 13.4 average shown in the Brohamer model, Let'spickupthepace, Uncle Jeep, Rochelle's Jimmy, and White Lace Jimmy. The first two had their highest rankings in EP, which strongly disagrees with our model. Of the remaining two, Rochelle's Jimmy's pattern closely matches the model, with EP rank lower than AP, and SP the highest. White Lace Jimmy's pattern is close, but has a higher EP rank then AP. Of course, you need to consider class, condition, etc., as well. However Rochelle's Jimmy beat White Lace Jimmy by 3/4, paying $39.60 and set up a $1.00 exacta payoff of $85.70!

If you are a serious handicapper, the Sartin Modeler is a bargain at only $99.95!