The Track Bias Profile v 3.0

Rated Top 10 for 2007 by Phillips Racing Newsletter!

We've taken our successful Early Speed Bias program, and punched it up a few notches!

If you use the same handicapping tools as everyone else, and handicap the same way as everyone, the odds are that you'll have the same results as everyone else. You'll be lucky if you only lose the same percentage as the track take. The DRF is a great tool and contains a great deal of information. The problem is that this information is easily available to everyone else!

To be successful, you need an edge. Some important information that isn't readily available to everyone else. Our Track Bias Profile program can do just that. It still gives you our graphic presentation of how early speed is doing at your track. But now, it shows you how each post position and running style is doing as well!

First, you need to recognize the difference between a "fast" track and a track that favors early speed. A Fast track is one in which the final times of most races are faster than those of similar races at other tracks. A track with an Early Speed Bias is one in which most of the winners were among the leaders at the first call. A track can be fast without having an early speed bias. Likewise a track can be slow and still have an early speed bias. Even if you believe the "Track Variant" in the DRF is reliable, it doesn't measure early speed bias, just the relative winning times.

Knowledge of an early speed bias is important in two ways. First, it helps the way you look at shippers to your track. Suppose your track does not have an early speed bias and you are looking at a shipper who is a front runner. If he has been doing well, but has been running at a track with an early speed bias, he may not do as well at your track. Second, it's important to keep an eye on your own track. Suppose, for example that the early speed bias at your track looks something like this:


The profile on turf looks pretty typical. Front runners have been winning occasionally, but, more often than not, the turf winner has been off the pace at the first call. But look at the dirt profile! Front runners have been dominating dirt races for a long period of time. The once-a-week bettor may not have realized this, but the serious handicapper would have known about this strong bias toward early speed and taken that into account in his wagers. But would he have realized the sudden change that started about a week ago? Don't you agree that this information would have given you a significant advantage, even against other serious handicappers?

Our Track Bias Profile program does just that. Basically, it looks at a results chart file (*.cht) downloaded from BRIS and, separating dirt and turf races, calculates the percentage of winners who were among the top 25% at the first call, as well as that of the winners in the three other quartiles, and creates a number between 200 (all winners were front runners at the first call) to -200 (no winners were front runners at the first call) with zero signifying that there was no apparent early speed bias.

The program allows you to look at just a single results chart to see, for example, whether the last race of the horse you are looking at was influenced by an early speed bias. Or, as shown above, it will run through a stack of charts taken from the same track, in a single pass, and plot the early speed bias number as shown above. You can also elect to plot the 5-card moving average of the speed bias number, to smooth out the data and make the overall trend clearer. Here's an example from a real track...


And, while it's doing all this, the program is also tracking the post position and actual running style of each winner. So, in addition to the Early Speed graphs shown above, it also reports on post position and running style, as shown here:


It breaks down races by dirt sprints and routes and turf sprints and routes, and shows you the percent of races won by each post position and actual running style, with the actual number of wins in parentheses. Of course, you can find this kind of data in other places, but you are never sure of the range of race dates included. With our program you can control this because you decide which race dates to include in the analysis. So, for example, you can exclude dates which had unusually hot or cold weather, heavy rains, etc.

Here's a chance to develop important data that most of the people you are betting against won't have. It's a bargain at only $49.95. Buy NOW, before you miss another opportunity!

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